Geno Smith may have signed a lucrative $75 million extension with the Las Vegas Raiders, but don’t let the numbers fool you — this deal screams short-term solution. While the front office gave him the title of QB1, the contract structure tells a different story. With $58.5 million fully guaranteed and most of that loaded into the first year, Smith’s security beyond 2025 is shaky at best.
Enter Tom Brady. The seven-time Super Bowl champion isn’t just an icon anymore — he’s a minority owner in Las Vegas and a growing voice in football operations. Since his arrival, the Raiders have made bold moves: hiring Pete Carroll, a coach Brady respects, and trading for Smith, Carroll’s former quarterback in Seattle. But the question lingers — was that Brady’s long-term vision or just a short-term bridge?
Brady’s influence is everywhere. Behind closed doors, league insiders say he’s been hands-on with key decisions, and his relationship with general manager John Spytek (who comes from a Tampa Bay background) only strengthens his pull. Make no mistake: this is no passive investment. Brady’s looking to shape the Raiders in his image — disciplined, forward-thinking, and most importantly, quarterback-driven.
That’s where the pressure mounts for Geno. Despite a career resurgence in Seattle, the 34-year-old finds himself once again having to prove he belongs. And while he’s reunited with a coach who believes in him, the situation in Las Vegas is far from comfortable. With the sixth overall pick in the draft, the Raiders are in a prime position to select a quarterback — possibly his eventual replacement.
Vegas has already hosted top QB prospects for visits, including Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, Ole Miss’s Jaxson Dart, Texas’s Quinn Ewers, and Ohio State’s Will Howard. That’s not just scouting — that’s shopping. The one to watch is Shedeur. Not only is he a top talent, but he’s also close with Brady. Their mentor-mentee relationship stretches back years, and if he’s available at No. 6, the Raiders might not hesitate to make the move.
For Smith, that creates an awkward reality: he’s the starter now, but the franchise is openly preparing for life after him. He addressed the situation with professionalism, acknowledging the opportunity in front of him while making it clear he believes he’s among the best in the league. “I just feel that I’m one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL,” Smith said. “I’m out to go out there and prove it.”
It helps that Pete Carroll is in his corner. The two built a strong bond over five seasons in Seattle, and Carroll’s admiration for Smith hasn’t wavered. “He just never let up on that thought,” Carroll said, referencing Smith’s patience behind Russell Wilson. “As soon as we had the opportunity to put him in a position to take the lead, I couldn’t wait. And he’s been a winner ever since.”
But sentiment doesn’t always translate to longevity in the NFL. Carroll may want to ride with Smith, but Brady and Spytek are clearly playing the long game. They know that to build a consistent contender, especially in a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, they need to develop a franchise quarterback. Geno may be a steady hand — but is he a long-term solution?
There’s also the business side. Drafting a quarterback on a rookie deal offers massive financial flexibility. If the Raiders can develop a young talent behind Smith for a year, they can open up their cap situation for 2026 and beyond. That’s the kind of strategic thinking Brady thrived on in New England — win now while building for tomorrow.
Still, Smith has a window to silence the noise. If he plays at a Pro Bowl level, leads the Raiders to the playoffs, and builds chemistry with the locker room, he can force the front office to rethink their timeline. There’s a version of this story where Geno delays the inevitable and earns himself another year or two in silver and black.
And don’t forget, Brady isn’t blind to leadership or work ethic. Smith even visited Brady’s home recently, talking life and football with the GOAT himself. “I want to learn as much as I can from him,” Smith said. “I think the main thing is that I’m here to win, and I’m here to do the right things for my teammates, just as he did.”
But in the NFL — especially in a Brady-run Vegas — learning isn’t enough. It’s win or watch the next guy warm up. Geno Smith has the ball. The question is how long he’ll get to hold it.